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近十年股市大盤點:是什么導致如今的境況?

Ben Carson 2019年12月30日

一起來回顧這過去的10年中,市場都發生了些什么,才讓我們到了如今的境況。

如果說21世紀的頭10年對于市場和經濟并不友好,那算是把話往輕里說了。那10年簡直就是一場經濟崩潰。我們經歷了兩次衰退,包括自20世紀30年代大蕭條以來最嚴重的一次經濟危機,而兩次股市的崩潰中,每次股市市值都被腰斬。

這些大潰敗定義了這寥落的10年,對于標普500來說這是失去的10年,美國最大型的一批股票從2000年到2009年整體下跌約10%。盡管在2009年底,股市從當年3月的低點強勢反彈,但當時很多人預測,未來數年意味著更多的股市崩潰、波動性和經濟的衰退。

所以,很自然的,接下去的10年會反其道而行之。事實上,自2010年始的10年,是自1850年(能獲得有效數據的最早可追溯時間)以來第一次美國沒有經歷任何一次經濟衰退的10年期。股市雖然也經歷小幅波動的陣痛,但每一次市場矯正都變成了買入的機會,僅在這10年中,我們就看到標普500出現了200次的歷史新高。

這10年即將落幕,我們將迎來2020年開啟的新10年,一起來回顧這過去的10年中,市場都發生了些什么,才讓我們到了如今的境況。

難以擊敗的標普500

從絕對和相對的意義上來說,21世紀的頭10年是標普500史上最差的10年之一,而此后的10年又是史上最好的10年之一。從總收益看,標普打敗了所有的主要資產類別:

To call the first decade of the 21st unkind to markets and the economy would be a massive understatement. It was a debacle. We lived through two recessions, including the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, and two enormous stock market crashes which saw stocks drop by half each time.

Those brutal crashes bookended the decade of the aughts, and that led to a lost decade in the S&P 500, which saw the largest stocks in the U.S. as a whole fall nearly 10% in total from 2000 to 2009. Although the stock market had rallied mightily off the March, 2009 lows by the end of that year, many were predicting more of the same dose of pain in terms of crashes, volatility, and economic calamities in the years ahead.

So, naturally, the ensuing decade did the complete opposite. In fact, the 2010s was the first decade since 1850 (which is about as far back as we have good data) that the U.S. didn’t experience a single recession. The stock market had minor bouts of volatility but every correction turned out to be a buying opportunity as we’ve now seen well over 200 new all-time highs on the S&P 500 this decade alone.

As the 2010s wind down, and we get ready to usher in the 2020s, here’s a look back at what happened in the markets over the past decade that got us to this point.

S&P 500: tough to beat

The S&P 500 followed one of its worst decades on record in the 2000s with one of its best in the 2010s on both an absolute and relative basis. The S&P crushed all of the main asset classes as you can see from the total returns:

資產各類別的表現 21世紀第二個10年

數據截至2019年11月29日?表格:本·卡爾森 來源:YCharts

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這10年中有9年標普指數上漲,只有2019年下跌,跌幅僅為4.2%。上漲的9年中有7年,收益是兩位數漲幅,而其中有不連續的3年,股市上漲20%或更多。

The S&P was up nine out of 10 years with the only down year in 2019, a loss of just 4.2%. Seven out of those nine years showed double-digit gains while stocks were up 20% or more three different years.

標普500收益 21世紀第二個10年

2019年收益數據截至2019年11月29日?表格:本·卡爾森 來源:YCharts

股市10年9漲的情況,在歷史上只有20世紀的80和90年代出現過,那兩個十年的年度收益更高一些。標普指數在20世紀的80和90年代分別漲了17.3%和18%,而2010年開始的這10年,投資者的年度收益率是13.1%。

除了20世紀90年代,2010開始的這10年,還是史上僅有的沒有出現一次熊市的10年(熊市的定義是股市下跌20%或更多)。標普500在2011年曾下跌19.4%,在2018年末曾下跌19.8%,但在這10年中,美國大型資本股票從未觸及那個神奇的20%熊市門檻。

科技股主導

大型資本的美國股票難以被擊敗,而其中一小撮股票表現得更佳。從成長性和股市表現來說,這10年中科技股的業績可謂現象級。截至2019年11月底,納斯達克100在這10年中漲幅接近400%,比標普500在這10年的漲幅還要多150%有余。

這一漲幅主要來自一小撮業已成為當下全球最大的公司。這10年的初期,蘋果、亞馬遜、微軟和谷歌的市值加在一起是7160億美元,而當前這一數字已經超過4.1萬億美元。

The only other time stocks were up nine out of 10 times in a decade came during the 1980s and 1990s, although those decades saw higher annual returns. The S&P was up 17.3% and 18.0% annually in the 1980s and 1990s, respectively. The 2010s have given investors total annual returns of 13.1%.

The 2010s do, however, have the distinction of being the only other decade on record besides the 1990s without a single bear market on record (as defined by a loss of 20% or more). The S&P 500 was down 19.4% in 2011 and 19.8% in late-2018, but U.S. large-cap stocks never hit that magical 20% bear market threshold this decade.

Tech dominance

While large-cap U.S. stocks were tough to beat, there was a subset of stocks within that universe that did even better. Technology stocks had a phenomenal decade in terms of both growth and stock performance. Through the end of November 2019, the Nasdaq 100 was up nearly 400% over the course of the decade. That’s more than 150% better than the S&P 500 during that time.

Much of that growth came from a small handful of what are now some of the largest companies in the world. The combined market cap of Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google was $716 billion heading into this decade. That number currently stands at more than $4.1 trillion.

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市值增幅,2010-2019

數據截至2019年11月29日 表格:本·卡爾森 來源:YCharts

這些數據還不包括Facebook股價的巨幅增長。Facebook在2012年上市,同一年馬克·扎克伯格的Facebook以10億美元收購了Instagram, 這肯定是這10年中最優質的一次收購。據預測僅2019年,Instagram的營收將接近140億美元。Facebook目前的市值是5750億美元,而在上市時其市值為800億美元。這五家公司的權重幾乎占了整個標普500指數的17%。

短短數十年間,這些科技公司從衣衫襤褸的初創企業,一躍而成世界級的巨頭大鱷。

商品交易

21世紀的頭10年,對于商品貿易是一段黃金時期,尤其是這10年的前半期,因為中國對基礎設施建設進行了巨額的投入。但當下的10年路徑卻不相同。綜合了一籃子不同商品的彭博商品指數,在這10年中下跌了約45%。美國西得克薩斯中質原油下跌幅度超過27%。唯一的亮點是黃金,在這10年中漲了30%,但主要漲幅來自2010和2011年。實際上目前金價比2011年8月的頂峰時期相比,要低25%。

人人皆知商品貿易就是如此,不同時期總會漲漲跌跌。而2000年開始的10年是漲的時期,而2010年開始的10年則是跌。

利率

過去的10年中,經濟學家和預言家們幾乎每年都預測說利率要漲,可實際上更多的情形是利率下跌。在這10年的大部分時候,利率都定在一個范圍內,看看下表10年期美國國債收益率的表格就知。

And these numbers don’t include the massive growth in Facebook shares; it went public in 2012. In what was surely one of the best acquisitions of the decade, Mark Zuckerberg and company bought Instagram for $1 billion that same year. It’s estimated Instagram will do close to $14 billion in revenue alone in 2019. Facebook is now a $575 billion market cap, rising from roughly $80 billion when the company went public. These 5 companies now make up just shy of 17% of the entire S&P 500 index.

The tech industry has quickly gone from scrappy upstarts to world-beaters in just a few short decades.

Commodities

The 2000s were a wonderful decade for commodities, especially in the earlier part of the decade because of massive infrastructure spending by China. The current decade did not follow the same path. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a basket of different commodities, was down nearly 45% this decade. The price of WTI Crude oil fell more than 27%. The lone bright spot was gold, which was up close to 30% in the 2010s but most of that price increase came in 2010 and 2011. Gold prices are actually still 25% below their peak from August, 2011.

Commodities are known for being a sector filled with varying periods of booms and busts. The 2000s were a boom. The 2010s were a bust.

Interest Rates

It seems like every year throughout the past decade economists and market prognosticators predicted rising rates, but the actual pattern was more down than anything else. In fact, rates have actually been range-bound for most of the decade as you can see from the chart of the benchmark 10 year U.S. treasury yield:

10年期美國國債收益率,21世紀第二個10年

表格:本·卡爾森 來源:YCharts

10年期國債收益率,以略低于4%開局,在2016年7月觸及歷史低點1.37%。不過收益率在10年的大部分時間中,都固定在1.5%到3.5%之間。自20世紀80年代初,利率就開始下跌,看起來已經跌無可跌了,所以看好利率持續走高也不奇怪,但利率并不配合,目前還在2%以下。

美聯儲

金融危機的發生,人們多少會責怪于美聯儲,但最近10年的經濟好轉也要歸功于它。量化寬松政策和數年接近0%的名義利率,讓很多人預測,央行這種非正統的做法,會導致惡性通貨膨脹、經濟二次衰退和股市的蕭條??墒聦嵣?,我們看到了自二戰以來的失業率最大幅度的減少,從頂峰時的10%跌到如今3.5%的低點。

加上在這10年中有三位不同的主席(本·伯南克、珍妮特·耶倫和現在的杰羅姆·鮑威爾),美聯儲的表現更加奪人眼球。很多人認為,美聯儲的利率從2008年的0%維持到2015年的12月,等了太長時間才開始提高利率。此后美聯儲開始一系列的動作大幅提升利率,直到去年底的2%略多。在2019年我們見證了美聯儲三次削減利率,聽起來很多,但從1960年開始,平均每10年中就會出現23次利率削減。

美聯儲不是完美的,它也不是無所不能的。但美聯儲引領了經濟的恢復,還是值得稱道的,它的表現比在面對金融危機時好得多了。

沒有人知道,未來的10年將會給投資者帶來什么,但有一點是確定無疑的,未來的10年跟過去的10年肯定大不相同。 (財富中文網)

本文作者是注冊金融分析師本·卡爾森,他是里薩茲財富管理公司(Ritholtz Wealth Management)機構資產管理部門的主任。

譯者:宣峰

The 10-year yield began the decade just shy of 4%, and touched an all-time low of 1.37% in July, 2016. But rates essentially remained in a tight range between 1.5% and 3.5% for the majority of the decade. Rates have been falling since the early-1980s and seemingly don’t have much further to fall, so it’s no surprise we see a consistent stream of higher rate calls. But rates have not cooperated, and still sit below 2%.

The Federal Reserve

After getting taken to task for more or less missing the financial crisis, you have to hand it to the Fed for their role in getting the economy on better footing this decade. Quantitative easing and near-0% nominal rates for a number of years led many to predict hyperinflation, a double-dip recession and more pain in the stock market from these unorthodox central bank actions. Instead, we’ve had the biggest decline in the unemployment rate since World War II, falling from a peak of 10% to the recent low of 3.5%.

This is even more impressive based on the fact that we’ve had three different Fed Chairs this decade (Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and now Jerome Powell). Many say the Fed waited far too long to raise rates after the Fed Funds Rate was effectively 0% from December 2008 through December 2015. That’s when the Fed embarked on a series of hikes that brought rates up well over 2% by the end of last year. Alas, we’ve now had three rate cuts in 2019 alone, which sounds like a lot until you consider the average decade since 1960 has experienced 23 rate cuts.

The Fed is not perfect. Nor are the central bankers omnipotent. But you have to give them credit for navigating the recovery much better than they navigated the onset of the financial crisis.

No one knows what the next decade has in store for investors but one thing’s for sure: the next 10 years will look nothing like the last 10 years.

Ben Carlson, CFA is the Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

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